Threats evolve and can recede, while risks remain even when no immediate opponent dominates planning. The end of the Cold War justified changing forces and perhaps reducing spending. It did not justify assuming that conflict had ended after the Gulf War, the Balkans, and later interventions. Low likelihood does not erase high consequences, so force structure must retain insurance against persistent risks.
Notable Point · 18:24-21:11
Why defense planning must separate permanent risks from changing threats
The post-Cold War peace dividend is criticized for treating the decline of one threat as though enduring security risks had disappeared.