Argentina's amphibious limits in a renewed Falklands invasion

Could Argentina take and hold the Falkland Islands now while British maritime forces are under strain?

No. Argentina's naval and amphibious limitations are more severe than Britain's, while the islands already have aircraft and a capable garrison.

The February 2026 assessment rejects a successful Argentine invasion on the balance of forces described. The Falklands already have Eurofighters and a garrison that is said to include Gurkhas and Royal Marines, although the troop details are recalled tentatively. Argentina is estimated to have only one viable landing ship and a few landing craft, making the rapid landing of heavy equipment difficult. Much of its equipment is also described as decades old. Those limitations make the proposed attack implausible even with British maritime forces under strain.