Was Russia likely to halt Admiral Kuznetsov's scrapping and reactivate her to protect its shadow fleet?
Short answerNo. A warship's presence would still leave Russia facing the risk of open conflict if it attacked the boats or helicopters conducting an inspection.
NotesA Russian warship could position itself between an inspection force and a tanker, but boarding helicopters and boats would still present a problem. Shooting down a helicopter would risk turning the encounter into open war. Russia is judged unlikely to seek that additional conflict while already fighting in Ukraine. This makes escalation central to the proposed protection of the shadow fleet. Russian and Western defence-sales claims also require the same sceptical scrutiny.