Q&A · 1:29:56-1:31:00

If both sides kept their Midway carriers, another battle would follow

The counterfactual turns on how many American carriers could assemble for the next battle, with no fixed estimate of the delay.

Question

What if Japan withdrew from Midway without losing its carriers and without sinking any American carriers?

Short answer

Another carrier battle is expected within months, possibly with four or five American carriers available. The effect on the war's duration is uncertain.

Notes

Japan's withdrawal leaves both sides' carriers available for another encounter. The expectation is another battle within a few months, potentially with more American carriers concentrated there. Four or five American carriers instead of three would alter the force ratio and the risk of further losses. The effect on the war's duration remains uncertain, since the later battle could yield a stronger American result.