How much trouble would the United States face if it actually lost hegemony in the Pacific?
Short answerCyclic expects severe economic consequences and a prolonged strategic contest, explicitly qualifying his recurring-war forecast as one he hopes is wrong.
NotesCyclic connects US economic security to a global trading system supported by alliances. He identifies Pacific relationships and routes serving the West Coast as part of that dependence. He predicts repeated US-China conflicts because neither state could easily occupy the other and impose a final settlement, while explicitly saying he hopes that forecast is wrong. His estimate of a fifty-to-one-hundred-year period of pressure is therefore a personal forecast. The economic and strategic consequences are presented as his assessment of the hypothetical loss of primacy.