Q&A ยท 58:06-1:02:01

Could early Cold War confrontation have been reduced?

A Cold War counterfactual considers different Chinese border flashpoints and the transition between wartime and postwar diplomacy.

Question

What might have reduced US-Soviet confrontation between 1945 and 1955?

Short answer

A surviving Nationalist China would still face Soviet border disputes. The response then examines the change of diplomatic interlocutors after 1945.

Notes

A surviving Nationalist China would leave Sino-Soviet territorial disputes unresolved and could bring those disputes into the confrontation between US-aligned and Soviet forces. The border artillery exchanges are used to explain why changing China's government does not automatically remove Cold War flashpoints. Truman's transition from domestic politics to negotiations with Stalin introduces the next diplomatic comparison. Other participants connect that discussion to the different political settings in which leaders had gained experience, and bring Mao, Attlee and de Gaulle into the comparison. This is a counterfactual discussion of diplomatic relationships, without a demonstrated alternative path that would have prevented confrontation.