Q&A · 3:11:14-3:12:46

Railguns, Gauss guns, and imperfect naval innovation

A workable railgun is favored, alongside a warning that procurement cultures can reject useful technology for falling short of an imagined perfect solution.

Question

What major naval advance is most likely over the next fifty years?

Short answer

The forecast favors a practical railgun or Gauss gun, with the railgun considered more likely because it offers better aiming control.

Notes

A personal forecast favors a practical railgun or Gauss gun as a major naval advance over the next fifty years. The railgun is considered more likely because it can be aimed more readily, although a simpler Gauss gun might also become usable. Useful systems can be rejected because they fall short of perfect performance at introduction. Several ninety-five-percent solutions might together meet a requirement that none satisfies alone. Demanding perfection from the outset can leave no usable system available.