Q&A · 4:22:51-4:27:08

Britain remains the Gulf's external security guarantor

Retaining the Gulf commitment requires sustained air and naval forces, while its affordability depends partly on the scale of Britain's existing bases and procurement programmes.

Question

What if the Gulf had been excluded from Britain's 1968 withdrawal east of Suez?

Short answer

Britain could remain the leading guarantor with sustained spending and secure bases, though the scale of the necessary political and budget changes is disputed.

Notes

Britain could remain the Gulf's primary external security guarantor if it funded the necessary forces. The commitment would require substantial air power, a significant naval presence, and a secure base, with Diego Garcia considered a likely focus for expansion. The land commitment would probably be smaller than the air commitment. There is disagreement over whether sustaining this policy would demand radical domestic political change or a more manageable increase in spending. The case for affordability rests on expanding forces and infrastructure that Britain already maintains. Adding aircraft to a large existing programme spreads common infrastructure and development costs more widely, although buying and supporting the extra aircraft still costs money. The feasibility therefore depends on the size of the wider force as well as the regional deployment.