Could Britain and Canada win the Battle of the Atlantic without the United States entering the war?
Short answerProbably, if Japan also stays out; Canadian production and a narrower war make victory plausible, but likely later.
NotesThe counterfactual turns on what American non-entry means. If Japan also stays out, Britain avoids the Far Eastern war while Canadian shipbuilding strengthens the escort effort. Under those conditions the Atlantic campaign remains winnable, although the decisive improvement might come in 1943 rather than 1942.