The operation is being considered for the first half of 1915. German Baltic defenses would become denser as the war continued, with many later measures developed after Jutland. Applying those defenses to early 1915 changes the conditions of the counterfactual. German confidence that Britain would respect Danish neutrality also matters when judging the possibility of surprise.
Notable Point · 2:23:25-2:24:28
Why the date matters when judging Baltic defenses
Defenses developed later in the war cannot simply be assumed to exist for an operation proposed in the first half of 1915.