How Baltic control might keep Russia in the war

The revised objective is effective maritime control rather than total occupation of Germany's Baltic coast. A blockade comparable in effectiveness to the Union blockade could sharply reduce German trade while still allowing occasional runners through. Convoys to Russia would deliver food, weapons, and other supplies to ports connected with usable internal infrastructure. That support could delay or prevent the political and military collapse that removed Russia from the historical war. German troops retained for coastal defense could not reinforce either the eastern or western fronts, while bombardment threatened the shipyards building later U-boats. Together, these effects might shorten the war by years even if the occupied territory remained small. The reward is large enough to explain why a cautious commander might accept an operation whose risk remained enormous.