Nuclear-armed opponents face strong pressure not to initiate an exchange because retaliation could destroy both sides. The same problem applies to a Chinese ballistic-missile weapon. A launch intended for conventional attack still resembles one whose warhead cannot be confidently identified in flight. The defender may therefore have to decide whether to retaliate before learning the attacker's intent, making ambiguity itself a source of escalation risk.
Notable Point · 1:39:17
How ballistic-missile ambiguity raises escalation risk
A conventionally intended ballistic-missile launch can still look nuclear to an opponent that must decide before impact.