Why navies should distrust single-weapon predictions

When were Fisher's scrapping decisions made, and were submarines already seen as a serious future threat?

The decisions came in 1904-05, when torpedoes and submarines were already influential, but neither displaced every other naval capability.

Torpedoes had already encouraged claims that they would define the future fleet by themselves. Yet guns and torpedoes remained in service alongside newer missiles and aircraft. New weapons usually add missions and combinations rather than erasing every older capability. The watch point cautions against procurement arguments that present one emerging technology as a complete substitute for a balanced force.