Without the First World War, how long might US carrier and fleet modernization have been delayed?
Short answerPossibly until the late 1920s, because political enthusiasm concentrated on top-line battleships while the supporting fleet received less attention.
NotesWartime experience creates urgency across aviation, scouting, logistics, and supporting forces. Without that shock, Congress can still approve visible battleships while neglecting less familiar capabilities. Carrier development would then compete against a political preference for the traditional battle line. A delay to the late 1920s is therefore plausible rather than assuming technological change would advance on the same schedule regardless of war.