The American argument begins with a familiar deterrent logic: a much weaker Japan should see no advantage in attacking. The reasoning has an internal logic, but it is unsound because it ignores the opponent's perception. Overwhelming inferiority can make a state feel trapped rather than reassured. Giving Japan continuing construction and visible benefits from the treaty may therefore reduce the insecurity that drives irrational or escalatory choices.
Notable Point · 3:10:28-3:11:11
How overwhelming deterrence can create insecurity
American negotiators could rationally expect superiority to deter war while overlooking how the same imbalance might make Japan frightened and more willing to take dangerous risks.