The carrier locations sharply constrain the counterfactual. Enterprise was returning from delivering twelve Marine Wildcats to Wake, Lexington remained at Pearl Harbor before her Midway ferry mission, and Saratoga was at San Diego preparing to embark her air group. Yorktown, Ranger, and Wasp were committed to the Atlantic, while Hornet had not completed her shakedown cruise. Moving any carrier would also require repositioning its cruisers, destroyers, and support, changing far more history than the premise allows. The scenario therefore needs a scouting force already available in the central Pacific rather than an invented carrier deployment.
Notable Point · 13:55-17:09
Why the American carriers cannot make the sighting
Enterprise, Lexington, Saratoga, and the Atlantic carriers were committed too far away for a minimally altered scenario.