A large change to one ship class alters the rivals built in response, the treaties negotiated around them, and the next generation of designs. Each response then becomes the cause of another change. A historian can often trace the immediate consequences, but confidence falls as the chain grows longer. Holding later fleets and policies fixed after an early transformation produces a scenario that no longer follows its own premise.
Notable Point · 3:17:21-3:21:09
Where alternate-history predictions lose confidence
A methodological aside shows how shipbuilding responses and treaty changes compound uncertainty in long alternate histories.