A carrier saved early in the war might reinforce the Mediterranean Fleet and alter the forces available for Taranto. That change could affect Italian naval performance and then release or consume ships elsewhere, including the Arctic and Indian Ocean. Each additional consequence depends on choices that would themselves change in response to the new situation. The analysis therefore stays with early campaigns where the direct effect of high-angle guns can be discussed without holding the rest of the war fixed.
Notable Point · 32:18-33:59
Keeping an alternate-history fleet inside evidence limits
One plausible ship survival cannot be compounded indefinitely into confident claims about Taranto, the Mediterranean, Arctic convoys, or the Indian Ocean.