A more isolationist United States would force Britain, Canada, and Australia to reconsider their dependence on American capabilities, although full American isolationism is a disputed forecast here. Reliance on one ally creates a strategic vulnerability when national forces lack capabilities that the alliance supplies. Several NATO members depend on a conventional military umbrella as well as nuclear deterrence. In peacetime, voters and governments tend to favour health care, welfare, and infrastructure when no major threat seems immediate. Rearmament begins as tensions rise, but it takes time to restore forces. That rebuilding can help restore deterrence, or a state may start a war while it believes it still has an advantage. Countries therefore benefit from retaining enough capacity to support their allies and meet part of their own defence needs.
Notable Point · 3:29:17-3:35:38
Alliance dependence and the peacetime defense cycle
Dependence on American capabilities grew through domestic policy choices and peacetime spending incentives, leaving force gaps that cannot be repaired quickly.