The plausible off-ramp from war in 1914

A sudden market fall, bank run, and naval demonstration could have imposed costs that Germany and Austria-Hungary were poorly placed to absorb. Applying the same pressure to Austria-Hungary might have threatened an already fragile state with bankruptcy as well as diplomatic isolation. A second retreat under financial pressure within three years could then encourage German leaders to strengthen the economy before risking another showdown. The critical change is timing: British and French leaders would need to recognize the danger and act around mid-July rather than only when mobilization and war were imminent. This is a historically grounded off-ramp, and peace would still be uncertain.