The memorandum does not ignore an American declaration of war; Holtzendorff calls it a serious danger that Germany should try to avoid. He nevertheless assumes that interned Central Powers shipping could be disabled, crews would be unavailable, and the lack of transport hulls would make American troops initially insignificant. He further expects the United States to accept peace once Britain is forced out because it would lack a decisive way to strike Germany. On that basis, he proposes beginning unrestricted warfare by 1 February to obtain peace before the next harvest. The memorandum acknowledged the danger but badly misjudged its operational consequences.
Chapter · 25:52-28:40
Accepting the risk of American entry
Holtzendorff accepted that the United States might enter the war, but judged that shipping limits would prevent it from changing the outcome in time.