A durable treaty cannot leave one side feeling defeated

In May 2022, debate over a future treaty ending the Russia-Ukraine war supplied a contemporary comparison for the Washington settlement. An agreement is unlikely to endure if one side celebrates outright victory while the other sees defeat. The final assessment returns to the failed proposals each Washington delegation rejected and asks whether the resulting bargain could be called equitable. Japan lost its preferred fleet ratio, freedom to fortify, and its British alliance, so many Japanese observers experienced the agreement as a defeat rather than an irritating compromise. American leaders also feared Japanese expansion and surrendered valuable ships to secure the deal. Treating the conference as a zero-sum contest deepened mutual insecurity instead of creating a stable deterrent order.