Would British intervention harden Union resolve rather than produce a negotiated peace?
Short answerIt could intensify Union hostility, but early supply pressure and Britain's limited aims still make a temporary mediated peace plausible, followed by a later American war.
NotesBritish action could anger the Union and leave lasting hostility. The forecast still favours mediation because trade disruption would hit before American replacement industry matured, while Britain’s objectives remained limited. London would seek redress and a short settlement rather than conquest or permanent responsibility for Confederate survival. A settlement would not resolve the underlying American conflict, so Union and Confederacy could resume fighting after a period of rearmament. The answer distinguishes temporary war termination under material pressure from genuine Northern acceptance of secession.