In this counterfactual, a surface equivalent of a submarine happy time begins with Scharnhorst-class ships, Deutschland-class ships, and other cruisers dispersed across global trade routes. Their range and numbers could disrupt British commerce far beyond the historical Battle of the River Plate. The advantage would be temporary because damaged or detected raiders would struggle to break through the Royal Navy and return to Germany. British construction shifts toward defeating a surface-action threat, while German raiders remain caught in the same geographic trap.
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A worldwide surface-raider surge with no safe route home
Germany could deploy many long-range surface raiders before war and inflict severe early trade losses, but their distance from home would leave them exposed to British pursuit.