World War II may begin with Germany already outmatched at sea

Germany enters the war with a relatively small submarine arm whose numerical peak lies years in the future. If a large modern escort fleet kills its prewar crews early, the U-boat service loses both its likely aces and the experienced men who would train later expansion. With German surface raiders still achieving only limited results, that disruption could shorten or sharply reduce the naval pressure on Britain. The counterweight is Italy: improved long-range cruiser submarines based beyond the Mediterranean could become a much more serious Atlantic threat than their historical counterparts.