Q&A · 1:38:10-1:56:34

Swapping the major navies of the Second World War

Fleet swaps change the opening balance, but national industry, basing, and maintenance capacity still decide the longer war.

Question

What happens if the major powers swap navies in the Second World War while Britain also regains the Grand Fleet?

Short answer

Britain dominates the European naval war, the United States rebuilds past Japan, and Germany and the Soviet Union suffer most from force, basing, and maintenance mismatches.

Notes

The hypothetical swaps the American and Japanese navies, the Italian and French navies, and the German and Soviet navies, while adding Britain's First World War fleet to its Second World War force. The starting date matters, as does whether ships under construction count. The working convention includes launched ships and uses the beginning of the relevant war unless the question specifies another date. Britain's extra capital ships, cruisers, and submarines would greatly strengthen its position against Germany and change the Norway campaign. American shipbuilding capacity would eventually restore its advantage over Japan even after an unfavourable initial swap. France and Italy receive a less decisive change, depending on France's subsequent fate. Soviet possession of German ships leaves difficult choices about basing across separated seas. The scenario assumes enough transferred equipment and knowledge to maintain the exchanged fleets.