Chapter ยท 12:49-14:48

World-war leaders misread deterrent signals

Hitler and Kaiser Wilhelm made catastrophic decisions after discounting the likelihood that other great powers would fight.

Notes

The world wars provide catastrophic examples of great powers misunderstanding what other states were communicating. Hitler entered Poland without expecting the action to produce a wider war. Kaiser Wilhelm II likewise issued Austria-Hungary a blank check without grasping that Britain would become involved in the First World War. The British fleet's concentration in harbor did not communicate enough danger to alter his judgment. A deterrent fails when a leader discounts the commitment behind the signal, even if substantial military power is available.