How would the Mediterranean war change without Taranto, and especially without both Taranto and Cape Matapan?
Short answerThe Royal Navy would still be fairly strong without Taranto alone, but facing Crete without either Taranto or Matapan weakening the Italian fleet could create a major problem.
NotesThe Royal Navy would remain fairly strong if Taranto alone did not happen. The more dangerous combination would be losing both Taranto and Cape Matapan as checks on the Italian fleet. If the Battle of Crete then unfolded against an Italian force that had escaped both blows, the British position could become a serious problem. The two victories worked cumulatively to shape the naval balance before the Crete campaign.