How might the Pacific war change if the United States fleet were not based at Pearl Harbor when Japan attacked?
Short answerJapan would face more intact United States ships at the start of the war, making its position less favourable rather than better.
NotesA fleet that is not caught in port leaves more ships immediately available to respond. Japan would still need to open the war while facing battleships and supporting forces that escaped the historical strike. Their survival would not automatically decide the campaign, but it would complicate Japanese calculations about time and freedom of action. Without the historical surprise attack, Japan's opening problem becomes harder.