Withdrawal and the possibility of a new Pacific agreement

A Japanese withdrawal could open the way to another deliberately vague agreement over competing interests in China. A new bargain might restore oil imports and buy two or three years, giving Japan time to rebuild fuel stockpiles while both sides rearmed. With no Pacific war, American personnel and equipment could accelerate operations such as Torch while the expanding Neutrality Patrol made a German-American conflict increasingly likely. If the Mediterranean war ended during the delay, the Royal Navy could redirect major forces toward Japan. Light fleet carriers developed through the design lineage of HMS Unicorn would add to the ships available for that concentration. The bargain therefore gives Japan fuel and time to reorganize, but a later war could begin against stronger American and British fleets. A settlement that looked acceptable in the newspapers could also let Tokyo comply with the instruction to turn back once surprise was lost.