A proposed explanation of the third wave starts with the bomb loads left for the available aircraft. Those loads are interpreted as suitable for attacks on infrastructure and cruisers. Returning first-wave aircraft and activated spares could have supplied the additional strike. On this reading, the absence of the American carriers made retaining aircraft for a strike at sea or a possible counterattack the decisive consideration. The first two waves benefited from surprise, whereas a third required confidence that the Japanese force would not be hit back. The uncertainty left room for officers to disagree over whether another attack was safe.
Notable Point · 20:48-22:05
Missing carriers and the proposed third wave
The proposed third-wave explanation connects the remaining bomb loads with infrastructure and cruiser targets, while the missing American carriers required a reserve against counterattack.