Chapter · 1:04:47-1:10:03

The cost-sharing lever that could move the base to Sydney

Singapore won on treaty freedom, chokepoint geography, and local subsidies; a Sydney alternative requires Australia to outbid those advantages by funding the base.

Notes

Singapore lay outside treaty restrictions, guarded a decisive maritime chokepoint, and received land and money from local authorities eager for the associated infrastructure. The counterfactual therefore leaves treaty and geography unchanged and alters cost sharing. If Australia funds most of a Sydney complex, fiscal opponents gain a base at lower British cost and advocates of accommodation can present it as less provocative to Japan. This point of divergence preserves the historical treaty and strategic map while changing the political calculation that selected the base.