Hospital bed planning and the need for surge capacity

The criticism of hospital bed planning concerns attempts to predict demand precisely and fund only the beds expected to be needed. That approach leaves a system exposed if patients arrive in batches or demand suddenly surges. Spare capacity costs money, but removing it can leave an otherwise economical plan unable to cope. The panel argues that treating a problem in isolation makes these failures easier to overlook. A recollection of a mathematician's talk supports the distinction between using statistics and choosing a model that represents irregular demand adequately.