In this interpretation, the faction pressing Japan toward war believed it was losing the peace and faced destruction of its culture. It expected probable defeat in war while still seeing a small chance of success that peace did not offer. Visible rival construction could undermine even that calculation. A ship intended to fight two older American standard battleships would face a different task against two N3s or South Dakotas because those opponents are heavily protected. The counterfactual forecast is a series of smaller wars instead of a world war. Italy's relationship with Germany remains uncertain.
Notable Point · 1:29:54-1:31:52
Japanese fear, stronger opponents and the smaller-war forecast
Visible rival construction could change the Japanese pro-war faction's belief that war offered its only chance of success.