The method develops an alternate situation from historical evidence far enough to provide a usable background. It stops when an argument begins depending on repeated layers of supposition. Wargaming then explores what follows from that initial position. Participants need to understand the historical systems represented and reason forward as the situation changes. The distinction limits how much confidence to place in later outcomes.
Notable Point · 30:26-31:43
Where historical counterfactuals hand over to wargaming
Historical evidence supplies a scenario’s starting conditions; successive layers of supposition mark the point for wargaming to take over.