A leading country's power can keep growing while a faster-growing rival overtakes it. The eventual successor is also difficult to predict. French expectations of succeeding Spain, German expectations of succeeding Britain, and the Soviet challenge to the United States illustrate that uncertainty. Britain and then America emerged ahead of those anticipated challengers, while the Soviet Union collapsed. In this interpretation, second place is especially dangerous because other challengers can attack that position without confronting the leader. Rapid technological change could therefore disturb Britain's naval advantage even while Britain continued to invest.
Notable Point · 4:31-7:55
Relative naval power and uncertain successors
A growing navy could still lose its lead to faster rivals, while technological change made the next dominant power difficult to predict.