The German military had a strong culture of testing plans through war games, but that did not guarantee sound strategy. Japanese exercises during the Second World War show how planners could disregard unwelcome results or rerun a game under altered rules. Aggressive institutional preferences can survive repeated testing when planners control how adverse outcomes are interpreted. Simulation produces evidence only if decision-makers are willing to act on results that undermine their preferred plan.
Notable Point · 1:06:37-1:07:45
Wargaming only helps when leaders accept unwelcome results
German and Japanese examples show that extensive wargaming cannot rescue a plan when institutions ignore or rewrite adverse results.