Changing one side's decisions also changes the situation facing its opponent. A counterfactual becomes misleading if the opposing side is required to repeat its historical choices unchanged. The discussion qualifies this by material capacity: an opponent can adapt only with the resources it can actually obtain and use. Wargaming therefore needs both a responsive enemy and credible limits on what that enemy can do.
Notable Point · 4:49:28-4:50:38
Why an opponent must respond in a counterfactual
A useful counterfactual allows an enemy to adapt while keeping its responses within material limits.