Why wargames show tendencies rather than predict events

What scientific basis can dice-driven historical wargames claim?

Repeated runs can reveal broad tendencies, but they cannot predict detailed human decisions and can still be distorted by institutional bias.

Repeated game runs can reveal a rough range of plausible outcomes without serving as a scientific forecast. Groups of people may behave in recognisable broad patterns, giving the simulation some value at the strategic scale. At the micro level, individual decisions make predictions progressively less reliable. A later exchange adds that institutional bias can blunt the lesson when senior leaders ignore results they dislike.