American planners drew inspiration from the fleet battles of Trafalgar, Tsushima, and Jutland. A single decisive engagement was a convenient assumption for a navy expecting to concentrate its superior battleship numbers. The square-law model treated combat effectiveness as proportional to the square of the number of guns in action. A 5:3 advantage consequently became about 2.8:1 in calculated battle superiority and appeared to promise almost certain victory. Tactical details belonged to training manoeuvres and war games. Some exercises followed War Plan Orange's expected sequence, while others varied it by considering interception of the American fleet en route to the Philippines.
Notable Point · 5:18-6:09
War Plan Orange and decisive-battle assumptions
Concentrated battleships and a square-law model made a decisive American victory look attractive, with a 5:3 numerical advantage treated as roughly 2.8:1 in combat power.