Japan's decisive-battle model depended on wearing down a distant opponent during its Pacific crossing before fighting the remaining fleet on favorable terms. American War Plan Orange studies recognized this approach and aimed to avoid it. One speculative alternative at Pearl Harbor imagines destroying the American carriers as well as the battle fleet, perhaps buying Japan a couple of years while the United States rebuilt. That possibility is treated as a very long shot, with victory in the war still doubtful. A less damaging attack might instead have provoked the advance Japan wanted, but that too was unlikely because American planners understood the trap.
Notable Point · 1:54:37-1:56:35
War Plan Orange anticipated Japan's battle trap
American planning recognized that a rushed advance across the Pacific would let Japan attrit the fleet before seeking a decisive battle near home waters.