Would an early large Royal Navy squadron have changed the War of 1812?
Short answerNot substantially. American heavy frigates could outmatch British frigates, but they lacked an answer to ships of the line once Britain could spare enough of them.
NotesAn earlier large British squadron is judged unlikely to change the outcome substantially. France played little direct part in the War of 1812, leaving the United States without the heavy fleet it might otherwise have hoped would support its frigates. American heavy frigates substantially outmatched most British frigates, which often needed to operate together against them. Britain already possessed more powerful ships of the line, but first had to secure enough vessels and control in European waters to release them. Once third rates and larger ships arrived in sufficient numbers, the American frigates faced opponents beyond the fighting strength that made them successful against British frigates.