If the United States withdrew from the global stage, would UK and EU navies expand?
Short answerThey would have to expand over time, because the resulting security vacuum would be global and expensive to fill.
NotesBallistic-missile defence in the Mediterranean, operations around Africa and South America, the Indian Ocean, and the Persian Gulf are commitments that would not disappear with an American withdrawal. European navies would need years to acquire the hulls and supporting capacity required to cover that worldwide gap. Relying on somebody else to provide the security would turn Britain, France, and their neighbours from rule-makers into rule-takers. Building the replacement force would instead require borrowing, higher taxes, or cuts to other public spending. Naval presence therefore depends on fiscal capacity and political autonomy as well as ship orders.