How would the early-1941 U.S. Pacific Fleet fare against the Imperial Japanese Navy if no aircraft were involved?
Short answerPoorly, because the American fleet was still seriously behind in battleship firepower.
NotesThe counterfactual removes carrier aviation to isolate the two fleets' surface strength in early 1941. The U.S. Pacific Fleet would still fare poorly in this assessment. At that point, the American force remained seriously deficient in battleship firepower compared with Japan. Taking aircraft out of the scenario therefore does not create an even surface contest.