Q&A · 2:47:59-2:49:30

How Arctic pressure could change Canadian maritime policy

This 2020 answer expects Canada to manage American navigation disputes quietly until stronger Russian pressure makes a more assertive Arctic posture unavoidable.

Question

How much friction could arise between the United States and Canada over freedom of navigation in the Arctic?

Short answer

Canada could keep managing the issue quietly, but stronger Russian pressure might force it to assert its Arctic position more visibly.

Notes

Canada was willing to manage freedom-of-navigation disagreements with the United States in a restrained, negotiated way. Growing Russian activity is framed as the pressure more likely to force a harder Canadian choice. Canada would not want to concede its position, so continued pressure could turn a deliberately polite policy into a more assertive one. Orders for Harry DeWolf patrol ships and Type 26 frigates appear here as early evidence that Ottawa was preparing the means to push back when required.