Preparation creates options in an uncertain world

Defence planning cannot assume that the future will remain stable throughout the life of today's forces. Economic shocks, terrorism, pandemics, and war expose the fragility of plans built around a permanently benign future. The strategic argument treats alliances as dependent on aligned national interests, making national capacity necessary even with a friendly security guarantor. Prosperous and peaceful periods should be used to prepare so later shocks are less damaging. Preparing for war can itself increase the danger of conflict, although the case made here is that greater confidence usually gives governments more room to negotiate and compromise.