The method described here follows the immediate consequences of a historical change and then the consequences of those results. It stops before a third layer depends on assumptions already built upon assumptions. Vietnamese independence at Versailles illustrates the difficulty: colonial mandates, imperial participation in the settlement, and subsequent international relations would all change before the 1960s. The limit is a stated method for keeping the scenario bounded, rather than a claim that its first two stages are certain. It explains why the discussion declines to forecast American culture half a century after the proposed change.
Notable Point · 3:37:12-3:38:14
Why a counterfactual needs limits on how far it projects
Following two levels of consequences is the discussion's chosen limit for avoiding a distant counterfactual built on too many intervening assumptions.