Turkey's actions cannot all be understood chiefly through its relations with Russia, China, or another great power. In this 2020 assessment, internal pressures and the possibility of conflict with Greece matter more to Turkish decision-makers than many concerns outsiders rank highest. Cold War relations with Arab states provide an analogy: American expectations about the superpower rivalry could overlook the urgency of pan-Arab and Arab-Israeli disputes. An issue's importance to one country's foreign-policy debate does not establish its importance within another state. A coinciding Russian telephone call, for example, does not by itself establish the cause of a Turkish decision.
Notable Point · 1:09:45-1:11:31
Why outside powers can misread Turkey's priorities
Turkey's domestic pressures and tensions with Greece can take priority over the relationships with Russia and China that attract outside attention.