The scenario moves from background tension to possible triggers for American intervention. Washington could cut off or threaten Japan's fuel and other imports, using economic pressure before declaring war. An attack on one of the British, French, or American gunboats around Shanghai could then supply Roosevelt with a casus belli. Roosevelt is already intervening as far as domestic politics allows, and many Americans are horrified by events in China. A more cynical argument holds that defeating Japan could leave it dependent on American suppliers while improving access to Chinese markets, giving commercial interests a reason to support intervention. This speculative pathway could create political support for war without guaranteeing intervention.
Notable Point · 8:28-10:59
Sanctions, a casus belli, and commercial support
An oil cutoff and another Japanese attack on a foreign gunboat could give Roosevelt a political trigger for war, while public outrage and trade interests broaden the case for intervention.