Triple 9.2-inch Invincibles escalate the armored-cruiser race

If Invincible had been a triple-9.2-inch armored cruiser, would 11- or 12-inch armored cruisers appear before the First World War?

Yes; established German 11-inch and British 12-inch guns make that escalation likely.

In this hypothetical design, four triple 9.2-inch turrets would need a superfiring arrangement because the wing positions could not accommodate them. Blucher's 8.3-inch guns provide the starting comparison for a German response. Germany could move to its existing 11-inch weapon, and Britain could then use an established 12-inch gun with ammunition already in service. Existing weapons offer a quick route to greater firepower. The cruiser race might remain at smaller calibres, but escalation is treated as more likely because neither navy would need to develop a new gun.